Top Ten Senate Races to Watch in 2012

by Todd Shriber

Just over two months removed from the 2010 mid-term elections, and the 2012 campaigns are already starting to take shape. After Tuesday, the news looks bleak yet again for the Democrats after Sen. Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) announced his retirement, The Washington Post reported, and Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) is set to do the same, according to Politico. Lieberman is listed as independent, but he is considered a Democrat for most intents and purposes.

Since a political junkie can never start the prognosticating too early, here is the Trader Daily list of the top 10 Senate races to watch in 2012, in no particular order of course.

1) North Dakota

In 2010, Democrat Byron Dorgan saw the writing on the wall and opted to not run for re-election. An open seat in the Dakotas is a gift to Republicans. President Barack Obama is likely to not come within 15 points of any Republican in North Dakota, making this an easy Senate pickup for the GOP.

2) Connecticut

There was an open seat here in 2010, and the Republicans gave it a good run. But this state probably remains a hold for the Democrats. Still, having to spend precious financial resources in a reliably blue state is never a good sign.

3) Montana

Democrat Jon Tester won this seat for two reasons: a toxic environment in 2006 for Republicans and the dubious ethics of incumbent Conrad Burns. Obama will be a burden to Tester in Montana, making the organic farmer a likely one-term wonder.

4) Massachusetts

It was cute and surprising that things got so bad for Democrats that they could not hold the seat once occupied by the legendary Ted Kennedy, but it’s hard to envision Republican Scott Brown holding this seat with Obama at the top of the ticket. The president will likely win Massachusetts by a double-digit margin making this a tough hold for the GOP.

5) Missouri

The winner of the presidential election usually wins Missouri, but how that anecdote plays out in the Senate race remains to be seen. There is speculation that former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman is mulling a bid, but she may not want to throw her hat in the ring in a presidential election year, according to Right Pundits.

6) Ohio

Perhaps ground zero for the 2010 disdain of Democrats, this is a pivotal state to the fortunes of any presidential candidate, but with the state now home to a new Republican governor, a new Republican senator and the newly anointed speaker of the house, this is going to be a very tough hold for the Democrats.

7) Wisconsin

This race could get interesting if Democrat Herb Kohl retires and Republican Paul Ryan decides to get in the race, according to Right Pundits.

8) Nevada

Republican John Ensign is by no means a lock to hold this seat. In fact, this is a race the Republicans should be somewhat worried about after their failure to oust Democrat Harry Reid last year.

9) Virginia

Here is another one where it’s going to be interesting to see how much of a help or burden the president is. Former Sen. George Allen may be mulling a bid to reclaim the seat he lost in 2006 to Jim Webb (D-Va.), according to Politico, and that would make this one of the juicier 2012 contests.

10) California

While this list is not in order, California would still likely be at the bottom. This would be a compelling race if Democrat Dianne Feinstein retired, if Carly Fiorina decided to run for the open seat, and if President Obama’s approval suddenly dipped in a big way in a state where he is still quite popular. Those are all big “ifs.”

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