Friday Fishwrap: Financial Mess and Mayhem

by Paul Springer

The week’s maelstrom of news left plenty to think about – and plenty that people would probably prefer not to think about at all.

But rather than burying our heads in the sand, we can spend the next couple of days obsessing over these developments – and try to figure out what wonders they will work on the markets next week.

First up: Why bite your fingers over the prospect of a double dip when you can tear your hair out over a whole new recession? MarketWatch looks at The Age of Deleveraging author Gary Shilling’s reckoning of the current situation.

“I’m predicting another recession next year,” Shilling told MarketWatch:

Not a double dip, he emphasized, because we’re already two years from the end of the last recession and 3 ½ years from the business cycle’s previous peak, in December 2007. Historically, he said, economic expansions last about three years, especially in long down cycles of the kind he thinks we’ve been in since 2000.

So, he’s looking for a brand new cyclical recession beginning in 2012.

(See also Minyanville’s “Five Things You Need to Know: An Inside Look at Our Asymmetric Recovery.”)

Not worried enough about all the routine threats to your trading environment? Then take a look at AllAboutAlpha’s “At least 7 black swans a swimmin’ in the asset pool” and start thinking about tail risk.

The Motley Fool: “Chinese Small Caps Get Even More Hilarious.” No explanation needed.

Complex exchange traded funds are often puzzlers. FT.com’s Alphaville reviews Bank of England’s analysis of Europe’s synthetic ETF exposure risk.

Seeking Alpha joins the crowd trying to understand why Orsus Xelent Technologies (ORS) trades the way it does.

Could the economy be in for a terrible smelting accident? Find out at Gold Scents.

California Reamin’ is the subject of a dilation on California’s budget debacle at The Mess That Greenspan Made.

Elliot Wave considers the possibility that the stock market will beat Obama in next year’s election.

ZeroHedge wonders if Banco Santander is at the center of valuation Kool-Aid quaffing.

Damned with faint praise: When it comes to debt, we’re not as bad off as Greece, Yahoo!’s The Daily Ticker says.

Contrarian corner: Research Recap explains “Why Fears of a Municipal Credit Meltdown are Overblown.”

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