Newsflash: Guess Who Loves Oil?
Article :
November 2008
Really, haven’t we been saying this, like, forever? ?? The biggest threats to the world’s energy security: war, hurricanes, labor cataclysms and...pirates!
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Cojones Q&A: Munitions Man
Article :
November 2008
How Rich Dugger clears land mines the same way he trades: very carefully.
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UBS: First Indictment Hits
Article :
November 2008
First up is the Swiss bank’s head of global wealth management, but don’t expect it to end there. The Department of Justice is also referring to senior unnamed UBS executives as alleged “unindicted co-conspirators,” a term we find more than a little foreboding. Read on for additional remarks from the indictment, not to mention said indictee’s lawyer.
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Snap! Oil Tumbles Below $55 A Barrel
Article :
November 2008
Crude oil futures take yet another nosedive, as the International Energy Agency slashes demand forecasts for this year and next, shifting its price expectation for 2009 to $80 from $110. The primary reason: the world’s developed economies, it says, will be unable to avoid recession and their growth is on course to contract by at least 0.2%, marking the first pullback of that size since WWII. But, of course, the forecast – like every forecast – has a wild card: China.
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Your Key To The Fed’s Big, Bad Clearinghouse
Article :
November 2008
If the Federal Reserve is preparing to set itself up to be the lead regulator for clearing trades in the $33 trillion credit-default swap market (and according to the usual “people with knowledge of the proposal,” it is) will it also claim it’s going to do one thing and then do another, per the usual protocol? We now think that’s a reasonable question to ask.
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World Bank To Dump Money On The World
Article :
November 2008
About $100 billion, to be exact. Or at least to start with, as we reckon it’s pretty clear to all those glued to this edition of the subprime blues that there will be multiple, multiple stimulus packages before this baby runs its course. Robert Zoellick, World Bank president, noted it would be an “error of historic proportions” to ignore the need for continued financing of developing nations such as Indonesia, Mexico and Colombia – all of which have “very good, sound” macroeconomic programs in place. Read on for all your details of Operation Zoellick.
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Another Day, Another ‘New’ New Phase Of Same Old TARP
Article :
November 2008
They’ve got another one! But this idea is soooo much better than the first one thousand and fifty-two already obscuring the cutting room floor. That proposal to conduct auctions to buy up bad loans and troubled assets? Pshaw! So last month. The plan now is to require firms seeking government money to raise private capital on their own to qualify for public assistance. That’ll learn ‘em. With only $60 billion left in its sieve-like pocket, here’s how Treasury will attempt to not spend all of its vestigial fund in one place (though, with AIG, AmEx and Detroit all jockeying for a piece of the action, that task will be none too easy).
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Behind The Scenes With Pauly And Bernie
Article :
November 2008
What really happened behind closed doors as Lehman Brothers hung in the balance and the global stock market melted down? Let’s just say that when you have one guy who rules the roost using the Socratic method and another who seems to regularly pull out the Navy Seals’ handbook, some interesting variances crop up.
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On Being Tarred, Feathered
Article :
November 2008
As red-letter events go, Europe’s biggest bank (HSBC) setting aside $4.3 billion in rainy-day money for bad U.S. loans and the biggest engine to the world’s growth (China) whipping out a $586 billion stimulus package designed to back ``fast and heavy-handed investment'' in housing and infrastructure and a ``relatively loose'' monetary policy are pretty major, we’d say. But we also posit that having five of the most renowned and wealthiest investment managers summoned for an old-fashioned roasting (reportedly unprecedented for the roughly $1.8 trillion hedge-fund industry) on Capitol Hill might also be impressive. Of course, we won’t know for sure, however, until Thursday.
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AIG: We Laugh At Your Puny $123 Billion
Article :
November 2008
With the revelation of American International Group’s third-quarter loss of $24.47 billion (not a typo) came the realization that the company wasn’t even remotely well-capitalized enough to sustain itself. So, the U.S. government dismantled its $123 billion bailout package, toggled some terms and replaced it with a shiny-new $150 billion one. Problem solved? Eh, we doubt it.
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IMF Hits Panic Button
Article :
November 2008
When the guys that have made a name for themselves as the “gloom-mongers” of the global credit crisis start ringing the alarm over worse-than-expected economic conditions, you know you are in for it. As the International Monetary Fund drastically revises down its recent growth forecasts, here’s what it’s saying about which nation (yes, singular) will suffer the most.
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What $47 Trillion Market? Oh...That $47 Trillion Market
Article :
November 2008
Apparently, the most comprehensive report on unregulated credit-default swaps didn't disclose bets in the section of the more than $47 trillion market that helped destroy American International Group Inc., once the world's largest insurer. Or at least according to Bloomberg, which today has unearthed the real deal.
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Ace Your Review
Article :
November 2008
In this rising era of job losses and the incredible shrinking bonus (on track to plummet 20% to 70% from last year, according to some experts) perhaps there’s never been a better time to master the fine art of the performance review. Read on for a slate of timely tips.
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Risk/Reward: Dare To Tread
Article :
November 2008
As a 23-year-old college kid in the Notting Hill section of London in the late 1980s, Peter Bartlett remembers sitting around his flat watching horrifying BBC news coverage of strife-torn African countries and thinking to himself, "I ought to go there…"
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Who’s Got The Coffey?
Article :
November 2008
In times of trouble, looks like even Greg Coffey, former star trader of hedge fund powerhouse GLG, would rather pass up $300 million with which to start his own fund in favor of the loving bosom of a more established firm. But which? Well, let’s just say that until the self-starter coast is clear again, it seems the 37-year-old Aussie will be seeking shelter as co-chief investment officer in Europe for his former employer's closest rival.
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Not-So-Very Light Jet
Article :
November/December 2008
The Embraer Phenom 100 is the best of the new breed of affordable jets -- because it actually exists.
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New York’s Unemployed Jump 13%
Article :
October 2008
And guess which sector is leading the pack? Some reasons why you may want to ditch that shirt and tie for a plumber’s belt. After all, if Wall Street has taught us one lesson, it’s that there’s never any shortage of leaky pipes.
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Despite Oil’s Drop, Bullish Signs Ahead
Article :
October 2008
Even as oil futures retreat from their high of close to $150 a barrel in July, the first authoritative public study of the world’s largest fields shows output is declining faster than previously thought. With our luck, renewable power generation complacency will peak just in time for oil to run out.
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Ah, The Humanity!
Article :
October 2008
Bloomberg says it best: the financial crisis, exacerbated by credit derivatives, is costing so much to fix that speculators are now using the very same instruments to bet on governments as the price tag for bailing out banks approaches $3 trillion.
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Munitions Man
Article :
November/December 2008
Rich Dugger clears land mines the same way he trades: very carefully.
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Signs Of the Apocalypse Pile Up
Article :
October 2008
Dust off your abacus, cuz’ it’s about to get Biblical. So far today, the Nikkei 225 closed at a 26-year closing low, while the sterling built on losses against the dollar and oil stumbled toward $60. The Middle East staged its first bank bailout Sunday, but customers remained fearful, rushing to yank deposits from Kuwait's second-largest bank. Elsewhere, the G7 commenced in its own freakout session over the yen (see following story) which continued to hover at a 13-year high against the dollar, as Indonesia’s rupiah and Poland’s zloty tanked. Equity indexes in India, China and the Philippines cratered by more than 6% and, not to be outclassed, the IMF moved to lend Ukraine $16.5 billion and give Hungary ``a substantial financing package.'' That, of course, did not keep Hungary's BUX Index from shedding another 11% – but not to worry. Deeply soothing statements are being made!
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That Was ‘D-Day’? Could’ve Fooled Us
Article :
October 2008
Maybe Citadel’s Kenneth Griffin had it right when he suggested in a panel discussion yesterday that the market’s fear has boiled over to such an extent that reality has been more or less suspended. In a stark example of how rumor and conjecture got out of control (again) in the credit-default swaps tied to Lehman, here’s what really happened on quote-unquote D-day.
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Dollar Doldrums? Fine, OK, Whatever
Article :
October 2008
As governments such as Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden intercede to further prop up a listing global financial system (even as the U.K.’s public finances are exposed today as utterly shambolic), signs of nascent stability are edging the yen and the dollar back down. A peek at the latest prognosis for currency markets.
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Baldies Of A Feather Flock Together?
Article :
October 2008
Not surprisingly, the face of U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson’s financial rescue plan is to be Neel Kashkari, a former banker from Paulson’s alma mater – Goldman Sachs – and a man whose deep understanding of the powers of the bare pate, it seems, is growing apace. What we do find surprising, however, is that the man entrusted to deal with the global credit crisis at breakneck speed is just 35 years old. Just who is this unmasked man? And, more importantly, how much are they paying him?
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Keeping It Upbeat
Article :
October 2008
According to Bloomberg, the world may be heading for its worst recession in a quarter of a century – if it's lucky.
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Cool New Bank Moves, Part II
Article :
October 2008
Capping a sweaty weekend of bureaucratic bombast (think of global Treasury officials, financial watchdogs and high-ranking bankers all sweating it out in one place – sorry for those of you just finishing breakfast) it appears no shortage of large financial institutions are relying on various Hail Marys to regain their financial footing. Here’s the full update on what is being done, from the U.S. to the U.K. to Germany to Australia, to breathe life back into the world’s top banks.
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The Trading Week: October 12 - 17
Posting :
All Things Forex
:
10/10/2008
The U.S. Retail Sales and a sequence of Consumer Price Indexes scheduled for release from several major industrialized nations will make inflation and consumer spending be the main themes of the week ahead.
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G7 Ministers Wish They Paid Better Attention In Econ 101
Article :
October 2008
Neither interest-rate cuts by 10 central banks nor mass bailouts are working. The International Monetary Fund’s emergency funding mechanism is not working. Talks among 27 nations under the auspices of the Financial Stability Forum are not working. The G-7 meets today in Washington and will release a joint statement at 6 p.m. EST. Let’s hope they can think of something by then. (But is that likely?)
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Dare to Tread
Article :
October 2008
Peter Bartlett facilitates markets in the kind of securities.
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High Society
Article :
October 2008
When canvassing the South Pacific, take a short position against
cruise ships and puddle-jumpers by traveling in the most luxurious
way: island-hopping by helicopter.
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Record High
Article :
October 2008
The race is on to shoot you into space. Which plane will you take a flier on?
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Yen Surges To Six-Month High Vs Dollar
Article :
October 2008
As Wall Street runs red (and into the red) and $5 trillion of market value flushes itself down the toilet inside of a week, here’s how the safe haven investments are already getting beyond overcrowded.
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Massive Swings!
Posting :
Larry Levin
:
10/07/2008
There were several huge moves today; however, the most talked about will be those in the Dow. At one point the Dow Industrials were down over -800 points, but late in the day managed to stage a massive rally of 500 points before it closed down just -369.88. At the low, it was the largest point drop in history. The early sell off was due to a global equity route last night, while the late rally was due to a rumor -- there might be an emergency G-8 meeting to schedule a coordinated global interest rate cut.
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Brave New World
Article :
October 2008
Already wondering what the financial landscape will look like once every bank is bought by every last government (or otherwise given a wet nurse)? Us too. We uncovered a sneak preview.
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Paulson's Kash N' Kari?
Article :
October 2008
As we say just about every week, you cannot make this $#!+ up! While the U.S. frets en masse over who will manage the $700 billion bailout, people close to Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson say he has come up with a winning idea: why not put 35-year-old ex-Goldmanite assistant secretary for international affairs Neel Kashkari in charge of it? Since everybody knows there's going to be conflicts of interest anyway, why not just go for it?
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The Trading Week: October 6 - 10
Posting :
All Things Forex
:
10/03/2008
In the week ahead, traders will focus on three interest rate announcements from the Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England, as well as on the upcoming G-7 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting, scheduled to begin on Friday, October 10.
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Brazil: Not Just Good For What You Think It Is
Article :
October 2008
Why BlackRock, the largest publicly traded U.S. asset manager, is suddenly snatching up Brazilian stocks with great relish after the so-called “global rout” this week knocked them into oblivion.
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Dash Across the Pacific in Style, With Exclusivity
Posting :
Travel
:
09/29/2008
A NetJets share may be nice, but it's not the only way to avoid the airlines. Upscale travel service Abercrombie & Kent has upped the ante with a series of new, unusual destinations offered through its private jet service.
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This Week In Wall Street History September 28 - October 4
Posting :
This Week in Wall Street History
:
09/28/2008
Playing for high stakes, Michael Lewis tossed aside a chest beating bond sales position at the "Law of the Jungle" cultured Salomon Bros. for the wilds of financial journalism. He hit the jackpot with his semi-autobiographical novel, Liar's Poker: Rising Through the Wreckage of Wall Street, arriving on bookstore shelves this week on October 1, 1989.
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Head Butler -- Books: The Sex Lives of Cannibals
Posting :
Jesse Kornbluth
:
09/26/2008
Travel books are advertisements. A writer goes somewhere, finds what's fascinating, obscures what isn't, and produces a book that makes you want to go there too.
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Contract ‘Tear-Ups’ Stalk Credit Derivatives
Article :
September 2008
In a show of uncharacteristic financial prudence, credit-default swap dealers have slashed the volume of outstanding contracts for the first time in an effort to cut risk in a market used to hedge against bond losses and bet on corporate creditworthiness. (Cutting risk! Imagine that.) So, what are the knock-on effects? We are afraid there will be many.
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SEC Demands Trading Records
Article :
September 2008
Let’s just say that in the FSA-SEC Pepsi challenge, you would probably be a lot happier with the FSA on your back. Heck, you would be better off with the SS putting the screws to you. Here’s why.
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FBI Investigates AIG, Fannie, Freddie, and Lehman on Corporate Fraud
Article :
September 2008
The FBI is investigating four major U.S. financial institutions whose collapse helped trigger a $700 billion bailout plan by the Bush administration, The Associated Press has learned.
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Goldman Confirms No Way To Quietly Enter Breadline
Article :
September 2008
But, it swears, the breadline was always part of its intrepid growth strategy! As news hits that the world’s richest man-cum-investor Warren Buffett will deign to give (formerly) master-of-the-universe bank Goldman Sachs a $5 billion shot in the arm, reporters are breathlessly dashing off missives proclaiming that this will be the incredible confidence-booster the global markets have been waiting for. In that vein, we suppose it’s also still an honor to be called the world’s tallest midget. After you finish pinching yourself, read on for the details of what Buffy the bank-slayer will be getting for his pains.
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Rumors Of Greenback’s Demise Right On?
Article :
September 2008
With the U.S. Treasury now looking to spend a cool $700 billion on poorly mortgage-related assets and cough up another $400 billion to guarantee money-market mutual funds – sending the nation’s borrowing grand total to more than $1 trillion – what, exactly, did you think was going to happen?
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Quoth Of Noth: Goldman Guru
Article :
September 2008
``The ability to raise capital, no matter who you are, has changed dramatically,'' Richard Friedman, global head of merchant banking at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., said Sept. 16 at the Dow Jones Private Equity Analyst conference in New York. ``People are winning by not losing at the moment.” Blackstone CEO Stevie Schwarzman and Seer of Omaha Warren Buffett are cases in point. Get a load of their playbooks and perhaps, you too, can raise capital for anything, anytime, anyplace.
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‘Bad Bank’: One Step Closer To Reality?
Article :
September 2008
One truism of the market is, if you make a bet and you are wrong, you’re supposed to be punished. Unless, that is, you are a bank and the powers that be decide to simply wipe as much as hundreds of billions of losses off your balance sheet, in exchange for, well, nothing. Or really less than nothing, if you consider that it will let banks get back to the important business of wasting other people’s money – in this case, the hard-earned cash of unwilling taxpayers. So, how is it again that they nailed such a sweet deal?
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Stop The Psycho Short Sellers
Article :
September 2008
Stocks have lost $3 trillion in value globally this week and someone’s got to pay for that. But who? The hedge funds, of course. After all, didn’t they bring us tooth decay, Lou Gherig's disease, cancer and government-created killer nano robot infection? The answer is yes, naturally. Certainly stocks taking such a beating is not an indication of their lack of desirability (really, who does not want to buy a boatload of financials right now?) but of the presence of pernicious forces at work that must be stamped out. Here’s how the U.S. and U.K. are once again teaming up to fight the latest wave of global evildoers. Think of them as financial terrorists. And remember, we are not halting the basic functions of our beloved financial system without good reason. We are fighting for our freedom.
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Mexico
Posting :
Travel
:
09/19/2008
As it turns out, the Maya were really on to something.
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Braining WaMu
Article :
September 2008
If nobody will buy WaMu, there are banks offering to give it the “Lehman” (rip it apart and scurry off with the best candy from this piñata). So who’s holding the biggest baseball bats? Basically all those left standing. Which aren’t too many, but we’re naming ‘em.
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